Since 2016, and just around this time of the year, I try to see how Reward Video Ads have performed in the past year and also check New Year transition and trends that are holding up.
Due to the uncertain nature of few world events (war, inflation, interest rates etc) we are seeing a general decline in Ad-Fill Rates and CPM.
Don’t be discouraged yet! If history is any indicator, I have seen similar trends playing out in 2010, 2015 and 2020, especially in the early months of the year. Then it usually roars back and play big starting April till the end of the year. So, what should developers expect to earn from Rewarded Video Ads this year?
I used a combination of what I saw back in 2010 (banner Ad), 2015 & 2020 (video ads)… and tried to combine few trends that we are picking up since November of 2022. While this doesn’t in any way guarantee what we will see this year (hey, after all it is still a prediction), here is what I think would likely happen this year (i.e assuming everything else stays as is or don’t deteriorate)
Video Ad Fill-Rate
Fill-Rate: Fill rate largely depends on geography. As I mentioned on previous paragraphs there is a lot of demand for North America and Western Europe audience. As a result, advertisers are willing to pay more in these geographies as compared to other locations. Here is what we are seeing in our network of clients that have integrated AppLixir Reward Video Ads.
Rewarded Video Ad Fill-Rates
I want to note few things regarding Video Ad Fill-Rates. Various factors such as Privacy Compliance, Unique Identifier IDs and Ad matchings are creating Ad delivery issues which may further reduce the above Fill rates by 5-10%.
Regarding eCPM, we expect a slight decline from 2022. Especially certain Geos (South America and Eastern Europe) has the most decline. Again, looking at past trends and factoring socio-economic conditions,
As I have mentioned above, the main factor determining CPM / payout is geography of your user base. Demand for first-tier markets (North America and Western European countries) is 10 times higher than demand for third and 4th tier markets. here is what you should expect (again, not a guarantee).
Rewarded Video Ad eCPM
So, what does all this Fill rate / eCPM values mean to you?
By combining the two factors of CPM and fill-rate, you can get a pretty good idea of what your revenue will be with AppLixir Reward Video Ads (Note that results may vary depending on various factors so make sure to read our other articles regarding ad revenue).
If you have 100,000 daily active users in the US; you will have an 85% Video Fill-rate @$5 for Web and $8.50 for Mobile.
To illustrate, let’s assume your Web Game has 80,000 Daily active users distributed evenly worldwide.
Rewarded Video Ad Web + Mobile-Web Earning
So, assuming you have a 80,00 Daily active users that will watch 3 Ads per day, you are looking at close to a $1,000 ad revenue on purely web traffic while you can generate around $1,600 on Ad revenue from Mobile-Web traffic.
Again, these numbers are based on what I have seen in the past that have likely played out over the years. While it certainly gives a sense of what you will likely get from Ads, it is by no means a guarantee. If you want to discuss more regarding the revenue projection or have some questions on your traffic and revenue potential, we are interested and happy to help. www.applixir.com